I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
Templeton Center · November 30, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread PRES -5.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money PRES -200 / VMI +210
Model Predictions
Spread Total PRES win
Actual PRES +15 129 Won
Massey PRES -7.4 (+7.6) — —
Massey Totals — 138.3 (-9.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 66% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 59% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ PRES -2.1 (+12.9) 133.9 (-4.9) 56% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML PRES -3.6 (+11.4) 136.6 (-7.6) 63% ✓
Baseline ML PRES -3.3 (+11.7) 137.1 (-8.1) 65% ✓
Baseline Plus ML PRES -3.5 (+11.5) 135.8 (-6.8) 65% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 2, 2023 PRES 75 – 71 VMI
Nov 24, 2021 PRES 59 – 54 VMI
Nov 13, 2021 PRES 73 – 72 VMI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PRES VMI
Overall 5-27 7-25
Conference 1-17 2-16
Home 5-9 6-8
Away 0-15 1-14
Neutral 0-3 0-3
Last 5 0-5 0-5
Streak L18 L2
Avg Pts For 61.8 65.7
Avg Pts Against 70.4 78.4
Massey -10.2 (#332) -11.2 (#343)
Bradley-Terry -3.59 (#354) -2.90 (#340)
W. Bradley-Terry -5.45 (#356) -4.28 (#339)
RPI 0.339 (#347) 0.328 (#350)
Shooting & Four Factors PRES VMI
FG% 37.2% 39.8%
3PT% 24.1% 33.8%
REB / G 33.7 37.0
OREB / G 12.3 12.0
AST / TO 0.61 0.70
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 41.3% 47.3%
TOV% 20.2% 23.3%
ORB% 32.2% 32.6%
FT Rate 21.9% 16.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.4% 57.6%
Opp TOV% 17.7% 12.6%
DRB% 68.1% 73.5%
Opp FT Rate 21.2% 23.4%

Game Analysis

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