You scumbag, you maggot, you cheap lousy faggot "Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
Cameron Hall · December 2, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread PRES -2.5 Away covered
O/U 152.5 Under
Money VMI +138 / PRES -125
Model Predictions
Spread Total VMI win
Actual PRES +4 146 Lost
Massey VMI -2.8 (-6.8) — —
Massey Totals — 150.6 (-4.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 15% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 6% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ VMI -0.9 (-4.9) 146.4 (-0.4) 44% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML VMI -1.3 (-5.3) 142.1 (+3.9) 50% ✗
Baseline ML VMI -1.7 (-5.7) 142.9 (+3.1) 54% ✗
Baseline Plus ML VMI -0.1 (-4.1) 146.4 (-0.4) 44% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 30, 2022 PRES 72 – 57 VMI
Nov 24, 2021 PRES 59 – 54 VMI
Nov 13, 2021 PRES 73 – 72 VMI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VMI PRES
Overall 4-28 14-19
Conference 1-17 6-10
Home 4-10 8-7
Away 0-15 5-9
Neutral 0-3 1-3
Last 5 0-5 2-3
Streak L13 L2
Avg Pts For 66.7 72.0
Avg Pts Against 84.9 74.6
Massey -6.8 (#299) -3.4 (#236)
Bradley-Terry -3.35 (#352) -0.38 (#216)
W. Bradley-Terry -5.03 (#350) -0.75 (#229)
RPI 0.330 (#350) 0.431 (#272)
Shooting & Four Factors VMI PRES
FG% 42.9% 47.4%
3PT% 28.2% 36.4%
REB / G 39.2 36.0
OREB / G 10.2 8.3
AST / TO 0.51 1.15
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.3% 52.8%
TOV% 23.5% 17.8%
ORB% 28.0% 24.0%
FT Rate 15.5% 24.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.4% 46.5%
Opp TOV% 14.4% 16.9%
DRB% 68.5% 72.7%
Opp FT Rate 24.6% 31.4%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.