Betting Lines
| Spread | VMI -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +5 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | VMI -6.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VMI -2.6 (+7.6) | 140.8 (-27.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -2.4 (+7.4) | 138.2 (-25.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -1.5 (+6.5) | 137.8 (-24.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VMI -2.3 (+7.3) | 140.2 (-27.2) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | PRES 75 – 71 VMI |
| Nov 30, 2022 | PRES 72 – 57 VMI |
| Nov 13, 2021 | PRES 73 – 72 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#241) | 2.5 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#114) | -0.89 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#102) | -0.85 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#147) | 0.277 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 20.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.3% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 80.2% | 60.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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