Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | DEP -163 SAM +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +5 | 201 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -2.4 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+59.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -0.2 (+5.2) | 145.0 (+56.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -0.3 (+4.7) | 142.2 (+58.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -0.3 (+5.3) | 143.0 (+58.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -0.6 (+5.6) | 144.4 (+56.6) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-8 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-12 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#223) | 6.4 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#218) | -0.04 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#215) | -0.38 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#167) | 0.436 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 35.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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