Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +7 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | RUTG -2.1 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -1.7 (+5.3) | 138.3 (-9.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -0.9 (+6.1) | 136.0 (-7.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -1.3 (+5.7) | 138.8 (-9.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -1.2 (+5.8) | 138.5 (-9.5) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 61.1 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#103) | 12.3 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#38) | -0.35 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#36) | -0.69 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#75) | 0.490 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 37.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 27.4% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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