Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -18.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +20 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -19.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -13.1 (+6.9) | 131.7 (-17.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -13.0 (+7.0) | 135.2 (-21.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -12.1 (+7.9) | 135.2 (-21.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -17.0 (+3.0) | 133.3 (-19.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2024 | DAY 77 – 69 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#138) | -10.4 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#265) | -2.02 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#224) | -3.58 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#195) | 0.351 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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