Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | AF -800 UAPB +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +28 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | AF -3.3 (+24.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -6.0 (+22.0) | 133.8 (+0.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -5.4 (+22.6) | 133.3 (+0.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -5.2 (+22.8) | 135.0 (-1.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -4.9 (+23.1) | 136.2 (-2.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-9 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#269) | -2.2 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#285) | -1.41 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#274) | -1.93 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#322) | 0.475 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 39.9% |
Game Analysis
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