Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -4000 UNA +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +19 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -23.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -19.2 (-0.2) | 144.2 (+10.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -21.0 (-2.0) | 143.7 (+11.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -17.3 (+1.7) | 146.1 (+8.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -19.0 (+0.0) | 145.4 (+9.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#42) | -7.7 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#87) | -1.23 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#56) | -2.80 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#39) | 0.357 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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