Betting Lines
| Spread | USI -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | WIU +220 USI -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIU +8 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | USI -7.8 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USI -4.7 (+12.7) | 146.2 (+17.8) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USI -7.0 (+15.0) | 144.0 (+20.0) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USI -4.5 (+12.5) | 145.3 (+18.7) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USI -5.7 (+13.7) | 145.6 (+18.4) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | USI 77 – 70 WIU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | USI 96 – 64 WIU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | WIU 87 – 62 USI |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USI 78 – 66 WIU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WIU 82 – 76 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIU | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-14 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#324) | 5.0 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#242) | 0.85 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#259) | 0.78 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#280) | 0.613 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIU | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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