Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -10.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -9.4 (+3.6) | 143.0 (-6.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -7.5 (+5.5) | 143.1 (-6.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -9.2 (+3.8) | 142.1 (-5.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -9.2 (+3.8) | 142.8 (-5.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2020 | PROV 79 – 70 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#101) | -0.1 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#122) | -0.06 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#49) | 0.13 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#222) | 0.439 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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