Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | TCU -120 PROV +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +9 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | TCU -8.8 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.3 (+23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -6.0 (-15.0) | 133.3 (+15.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -6.0 (-15.0) | 132.0 (+17.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -7.0 (-16.0) | 132.5 (+16.5) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -7.3 (-16.3) | 132.7 (+16.3) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2022 | TCU 75 – 62 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-14 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 9-10 |
| Home | 6-7 | 8-3 |
| Away | 3-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#115) | -0.1 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#74) | -0.13 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#62) | -0.88 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#112) | 0.445 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 20.7% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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