Betting Lines
| Spread | SEA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | SEA -400 CSUF +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEA +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | SEA -19.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEA -14.8 (-7.8) | 150.6 (-19.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEA -13.6 (-6.6) | 148.3 (-17.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEA -14.3 (-7.3) | 149.3 (-18.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEA -15.4 (-8.4) | 150.1 (-19.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEA | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#48) | -3.8 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#41) | 0.06 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#53) | -0.18 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#43) | 0.499 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEA | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.9% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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