Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -300 LMU +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +16 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -9.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -7.7 (+8.3) | 146.2 (+11.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -7.8 (+8.2) | 144.9 (+13.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -8.1 (+7.9) | 144.3 (+13.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -8.7 (+7.3) | 145.1 (+12.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2024 | CSU 83 – 54 LMU |
| Dec 23, 2023 | CSU 76 – 67 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-7 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#61) | 4.2 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#107) | 1.52 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#116) | 2.16 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#119) | 0.580 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 19.8% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 79.1% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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