Taking a bite on a biscuit, the record jumps on a scratch. "If I Didn't Love You" - Squeeze
Gersten Pavilion · December 23, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread CSU -5.5 Away covered
O/U 150.0 Under
Money LMU +185 / CSU -225
Model Predictions
Spread Total LMU win
Actual CSU +9 143 Lost
Massey CSU -9.1 (+0.1)
Massey Totals 145.1 (-2.1)
Bradley-Terry 13%
Weighted B-T 5%
Baseline Plus ML CSU -4.1 (-4.9) 144.6 (-1.6) 28%
Baseline ML CSU -4.8 (-4.2) 145.1 (-2.1) 29%
Baseline Tuned ML CSU -4.9 (-4.1) 144.2 (-1.2) 25%
Efficiency Plus ML CSU -5.1 (-3.9) 141.8 (+1.2) 32%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 5, 2024 CSU 8354 LMU
Dec 1, 2022 CSU 8771 LMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LMU CSU
Overall 12-19 25-11
Conference 5-11 10-8
Home 8-8 15-2
Away 2-7 4-7
Neutral 2-4 6-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 71.2 74.0
Avg Pts Against 71.5 67.9
Massey 1.3 (#147) 14.8 (#13)
Bradley-Terry -0.34 (#214) 2.54 (#24)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.34 (#207) 3.63 (#20)
RPI 0.463 (#239) 0.652 (#11)
Shooting & Four Factors LMU CSU
FG% 43.3% 52.0%
3PT% 36.4% 37.9%
REB / G 37.5 31.7
OREB / G 10.1 6.7
AST / TO 0.99 2.05
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.0% 59.3%
TOV% 17.9% 13.8%
ORB% 29.7% 22.8%
FT Rate 25.6% 28.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.2% 50.3%
Opp TOV% 14.8% 18.5%
DRB% 73.1% 72.9%
Opp FT Rate 23.1% 20.6%

Game Analysis

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