Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +21 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | NEB -10.4 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.2 (+36.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -7.8 (+13.2) | 127.9 (+27.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -6.7 (+14.3) | 128.2 (+26.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -6.3 (+14.7) | 127.8 (+27.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -7.2 (+13.8) | 128.3 (+26.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#129) | -1.6 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#163) | 0.25 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#136) | 0.14 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#137) | 0.538 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.9% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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