Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -4000 SELA +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +32 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -14.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -11.8 (+20.2) | 155.1 (+2.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -15.7 (+16.3) | 154.3 (+3.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -11.6 (+20.4) | 154.0 (+4.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -12.0 (+20.0) | 154.3 (+3.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#53) | 0.5 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#134) | 0.29 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#107) | -0.19 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#138) | 0.492 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 46.0% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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