Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | HART +300 FDU -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HART win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HART +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -8.7 (+16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -6.7 (+14.7) | 145.2 (-5.2) | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -5.8 (+13.8) | 143.8 (-3.8) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -6.1 (+14.1) | 150.6 (-10.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -5.9 (+13.9) | 149.1 (-9.1) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HART | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-23 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 0-0 | 10-6 |
| Home | 5-10 | 10-5 |
| Away | 0-11 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.7 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -22.0 (#363) | -6.9 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.77 (#357) | -1.64 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.96 (#359) | -2.76 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.269 (#363) | 0.350 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HART | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.1% | 58.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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