Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | INST +150 DRKE -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | INST -3.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -1.7 (+0.3) | 145.4 (+2.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -0.7 (+1.3) | 144.7 (+3.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -1.1 (+0.9) | 144.8 (+3.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -1.1 (+0.9) | 146.5 (+1.5) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | DRKE 76 – 62 INST |
| Jan 4, 2026 | DRKE 74 – 72 INST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | DRKE 85 – 81 INST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DRKE 71 – 53 INST |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DRKE 84 – 80 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 64.4 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#127) | 5.4 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#169) | 3.14 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#151) | 4.52 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#209) | 0.648 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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