Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -150 MTSU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +7 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -6.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -3.6 (+3.4) | 134.8 (+0.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -4.4 (+2.6) | 131.9 (+3.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -4.0 (+3.0) | 132.4 (+2.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -3.9 (+3.1) | 133.7 (+1.3) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#122) | 2.8 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#147) | 1.56 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#147) | 2.06 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#168) | 0.569 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 25.1% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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