Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -700 CARK +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +15 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -6.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -4.2 (+10.8) | 143.3 (+11.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -8.1 (+6.9) | 144.7 (+10.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -3.8 (+11.2) | 142.0 (+13.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -4.2 (+10.8) | 141.9 (+13.1) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 4-14 |
| Home | 6-8 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 82.4 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#296) | -6.3 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#247) | -1.16 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#244) | -1.86 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#242) | 0.388 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 29.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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