Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | SF -1800 LR +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +22 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | SF -16.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -13.1 (+8.9) | 151.7 (+6.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -17.1 (+4.9) | 150.2 (+7.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -12.5 (+9.5) | 152.0 (+6.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -12.8 (+9.2) | 151.2 (+6.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 80.9 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#126) | -8.0 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#56) | -2.86 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#67) | -4.75 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#90) | 0.342 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 60.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 80.1% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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