Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +220 UNCG -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +17 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -2.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -0.2 (+17.2) | 134.3 (-5.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -0.3 (+16.7) | 137.5 (-8.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -0.7 (+16.3) | 138.1 (-9.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -0.5 (+16.5) | 134.9 (-5.9) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2025 | NCAT 71 – 65 UNCG |
| Dec 7, 2024 | UNCG 67 – 55 NCAT |
| Nov 11, 2023 | UNCG 94 – 78 NCAT |
| Nov 10, 2021 | UNCG 57 – 53 NCAT |
| Dec 22, 2020 | UNCG 86 – 65 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#325) | -5.2 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#323) | 0.03 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.01 (#317) | 0.64 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.353 (#341) | 0.494 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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