Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +650 UNCG -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +21 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -4.7 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -4.0 (-17.0) | 146.1 (+4.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -4.1 (-16.9) | 141.8 (+9.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -4.4 (-16.6) | 141.5 (+9.5) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -4.2 (-16.8) | 142.3 (+8.7) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2025 | NCAT 71 – 65 UNCG |
| Dec 7, 2024 | UNCG 67 – 55 NCAT |
| Nov 11, 2023 | UNCG 94 – 78 NCAT |
| Dec 1, 2022 | NCAT 73 – 56 UNCG |
| Nov 10, 2021 | UNCG 57 – 53 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#292) | -0.7 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#286) | 0.28 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.27 (#293) | -0.04 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#272) | 0.517 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 80.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 37.0% |
Game Analysis
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