Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +260 UNCG -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +12 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -3.2 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -1.4 (-10.6) | 145.0 (-23.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -4.7 (-7.3) | 144.2 (-22.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -1.4 (-10.6) | 143.3 (-21.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -1.5 (-10.5) | 143.7 (-21.7) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2025 | NCAT 71 – 65 UNCG |
| Nov 11, 2023 | UNCG 94 – 78 NCAT |
| Dec 1, 2022 | NCAT 73 – 56 UNCG |
| Nov 10, 2021 | UNCG 57 – 53 NCAT |
| Dec 22, 2020 | UNCG 86 – 65 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-9 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-15 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#292) | 1.2 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#297) | -0.74 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#293) | -1.15 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#285) | 0.475 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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