Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -290 NCAT +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +6 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -2.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -2.5 (-8.5) | 147.1 (-11.1) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -4.7 (-10.7) | 146.8 (-10.8) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -2.3 (-8.3) | 146.6 (-10.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -1.5 (-7.5) | 147.2 (-11.2) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | UNCG 67 – 55 NCAT |
| Nov 11, 2023 | UNCG 94 – 78 NCAT |
| Dec 1, 2022 | NCAT 73 – 56 UNCG |
| Nov 10, 2021 | UNCG 57 – 53 NCAT |
| Dec 22, 2020 | UNCG 86 – 65 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#291) | -6.2 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#284) | -1.38 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#277) | -2.16 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#303) | 0.417 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 38.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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