I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
First Horizon Coliseum · December 17, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UNCG -6.5 Away covered
O/U 147.5 Under
Money UNCG -290 / NCAT +235
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNCG win
Actual NCAT +6 136 Lost
Massey UNCG -2.7 (-8.7)
Massey Totals 157.2 (-21.2)
Bradley-Terry 69%
Weighted B-T 76%
Efficiency Plus ML UNCG -4.7 (-10.7) 146.8 (-10.8) 78%
Baseline Tuned ML UNCG -2.3 (-8.3) 146.6 (-10.6) 60%
Baseline ML UNCG -1.5 (-7.5) 147.2 (-11.2) 57%
Baseline Plus ML UNCG -2.5 (-8.5) 147.1 (-11.1) 59%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 7, 2024 UNCG 6755 NCAT
Nov 11, 2023 UNCG 9478 NCAT
Dec 1, 2022 NCAT 7356 UNCG
Nov 10, 2021 UNCG 5753 NCAT
Dec 22, 2020 UNCG 8665 NCAT

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNCG NCAT
Overall 15-19 11-19
Conference 9-9 4-14
Home 8-6 6-6
Away 4-9 4-11
Neutral 3-4 1-2
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 76.6 73.9
Avg Pts Against 81.9 78.5
Massey -7.9 (#291) -6.2 (#268)
Bradley-Terry -1.40 (#284) -1.38 (#282)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.91 (#277) -2.16 (#288)
RPI 0.421 (#303) 0.417 (#308)
Shooting & Four Factors UNCG NCAT
FG% 43.1% 44.6%
3PT% 32.8% 30.4%
REB / G 33.0 37.2
OREB / G 8.9 10.6
AST / TO 0.89 0.76
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.0% 49.5%
TOV% 17.7% 20.8%
ORB% 24.9% 31.4%
FT Rate 32.8% 38.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.0% 50.6%
Opp TOV% 13.9% 16.4%
DRB% 68.9% 72.4%
Opp FT Rate 20.8% 27.7%

Game Analysis

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