Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | FOR -500 ME +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -4.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -4.8 (+0.2) | 139.1 (-0.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -5.0 (+0.0) | 137.5 (+1.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -5.7 (-0.7) | 138.3 (+0.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -7.7 (-2.7) | 136.1 (+2.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | FOR 87 – 72 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-9 |
| Home | 18-2 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#197) | 1.4 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#76) | 0.27 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#93) | 0.09 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#79) | 0.486 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 13.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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