Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | FOR -225 ME +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +15 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -1.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -1.6 (+13.4) | 140.8 (+18.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -1.9 (+13.1) | 140.5 (+18.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -2.4 (+12.6) | 139.5 (+19.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -2.5 (+12.5) | 139.5 (+19.5) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2022 | FOR 72 – 67 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 10-6 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#228) | -0.5 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#228) | -0.12 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#252) | -0.49 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#235) | 0.492 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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