Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +19 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -24.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -19.0 (+0.0) | 133.7 (-26.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -23.4 (-4.4) | 132.1 (-25.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -17.6 (+1.4) | 133.4 (-26.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -19.6 (-0.6) | 134.1 (-27.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#33) | -6.6 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#26) | -0.37 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.50 (#15) | -1.02 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#84) | 0.451 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 30.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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