Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +14 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -19.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -16.1 (-2.1) | 139.0 (+5.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -17.8 (-3.8) | 138.9 (+5.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -14.9 (-0.9) | 138.3 (+5.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -16.6 (-2.6) | 138.7 (+5.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 2-18 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-12 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#45) | -3.7 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#100) | -0.72 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#105) | -1.03 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#88) | 0.472 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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