Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | APSU +350 WKU -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | WKU -1.6 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.4 (+24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -3.7 (+2.7) | 129.8 (+19.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -0.7 (-0.3) | 131.7 (+17.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -1.1 (+0.1) | 132.2 (+16.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -1.1 (+0.1) | 130.7 (+18.3) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | WKU 65 – 64 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#294) | 1.4 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#297) | 1.51 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#299) | 1.31 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#219) | 0.554 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 44.0% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.2% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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