Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -120 COPP +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +27 | 191 | Won |
| Massey | COPP -3.0 (+30.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.3 (+21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -0.7 (+26.3) | 162.4 (+28.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COPP -2.1 (+29.1) | 160.9 (+30.1) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COPP -1.9 (+28.9) | 160.3 (+30.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COPP -0.5 (+27.5) | 158.0 (+33.0) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | UMBC 93 – 59 COPP |
| Nov 15, 2024 | UMBC 92 – 67 COPP |
| Dec 1, 2023 | COPP 89 – 70 UMBC |
| Dec 13, 2020 | UMBC 66 – 49 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 4-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 4-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 83.2 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#335) | -1.1 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#313) | 0.52 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#316) | 0.39 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.370 (#333) | 0.571 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.7% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.