Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | COPP +455 UMBC -625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +34 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -11.7 (-22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -7.7 (-26.3) | 138.4 (+13.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -9.1 (-24.9) | 138.9 (+13.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -8.3 (-25.7) | 141.4 (+10.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -7.7 (-26.3) | 139.0 (+13.0) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2024 | UMBC 92 – 67 COPP |
| Dec 1, 2023 | COPP 89 – 70 UMBC |
| Dec 1, 2022 | UMBC 109 – 82 COPP |
| Dec 13, 2020 | UMBC 66 – 49 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 14-2 |
| Home | 3-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-15 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.3 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -23.8 (#364) | -7.9 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.70 (#354) | -1.01 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.57 (#360) | -1.49 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.363 (#354) | 0.454 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.6% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.6% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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