Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | COPP +340 UMBC -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +17 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -8.3 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-32.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -7.6 (-9.4) | 148.0 (-33.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -5.4 (-11.6) | 144.1 (-29.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -6.1 (-10.9) | 145.2 (-30.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -6.6 (-10.4) | 145.6 (-30.6) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | UMBC 93 – 59 COPP |
| Nov 15, 2024 | UMBC 92 – 67 COPP |
| Dec 1, 2023 | COPP 89 – 70 UMBC |
| Dec 1, 2022 | UMBC 109 – 82 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#277) | 5.8 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#254) | 1.13 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#250) | 1.90 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.321 (#291) | 0.552 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.3% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.0% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 16.2% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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