Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | COPP +400 UMBC -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COPP +19 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -8.5 (+27.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -7.7 (+26.7) | 141.9 (+17.1) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -7.0 (+26.0) | 141.0 (+18.0) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -6.6 (+25.6) | 138.8 (+20.2) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -5.3 (+24.3) | 141.5 (+17.5) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | UMBC 93 – 59 COPP |
| Nov 15, 2024 | UMBC 92 – 67 COPP |
| Dec 1, 2022 | UMBC 109 – 82 COPP |
| Dec 13, 2020 | UMBC 66 – 49 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-27 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 1-13 | 6-10 |
| Home | 2-8 | 6-9 |
| Away | 0-17 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L13 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.9 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -19.1 (#360) | -4.4 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.14 (#359) | -0.97 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.98 (#358) | -1.55 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.272 (#362) | 0.406 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 23.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 24.8 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.45 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.7% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 20.8% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 54.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.