Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | FAU -250 USA +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +25 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -9.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -9.2 (+15.8) | 141.7 (+1.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -6.5 (+18.5) | 143.6 (-0.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -8.7 (+16.3) | 140.2 (+2.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -9.7 (+15.3) | 140.2 (+2.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2020 | USA 68 – 66 FAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-0 | 10-4 |
| Away | 11-3 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#52) | 5.0 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#31) | -0.08 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.41 (#38) | 0.32 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.661 (#19) | 0.522 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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