Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | EIU +200 NIU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +20 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | EIU -2.2 (-22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (+31.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EIU -0.4 (-20.4) | 132.9 (+27.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EIU -1.0 (-21.0) | 129.6 (+30.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EIU -0.4 (-20.4) | 129.7 (+30.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIU -0.6 (-19.4) | 135.5 (+24.5) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2024 | EIU 72 – 59 NIU |
| Dec 2, 2021 | NIU 55 – 45 EIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EIU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-9 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#323) | -5.0 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.84 (#358) | -1.15 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.84 (#358) | -1.60 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.306 (#355) | 0.389 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EIU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.7% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.6% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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