Betting Lines
| Spread | BUCK -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | BUCK -225 SFPA +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +24 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | BUCK -13.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUCK -9.8 (+14.2) | 138.9 (+15.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUCK -8.4 (+15.6) | 137.1 (+16.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -9.8 (+14.2) | 143.2 (+10.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -10.1 (+13.9) | 142.3 (+11.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2021 | SFPA 93 – 67 BUCK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#218) | -9.0 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#269) | -3.00 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#268) | -4.34 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#230) | 0.372 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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