Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +26 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | SFPA -13.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -10.4 (+15.6) | 156.0 (+4.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -9.0 (+17.0) | 156.9 (+3.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -9.6 (+16.4) | 155.1 (+4.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -9.9 (+16.1) | 154.0 (+6.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2022 | BUCK 89 – 65 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 4-8 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-13 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#181) | -8.0 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#253) | -2.16 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#273) | -2.76 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#268) | 0.336 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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