Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -600 UNM +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +4 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -10.8 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -9.6 (-13.6) | 135.6 (-1.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -8.2 (-12.2) | 137.7 (-3.7) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -8.4 (-12.4) | 138.4 (-4.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -7.5 (-11.5) | 140.5 (-6.5) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2023 | SMC 72 – 58 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-2 | 15-5 |
| Away | 6-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 80.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.0 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#27) | 7.8 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#51) | 2.29 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#62) | 3.32 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#33) | 0.580 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 80.7% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 13.4% |
Game Analysis
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