Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | MAN +110 FAIR -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +3 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | MAN -3.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -0.8 (+2.2) | 131.9 (-22.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -0.2 (+3.2) | 131.6 (-22.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -1.3 (+1.7) | 132.5 (-23.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -1.0 (+2.0) | 132.1 (-23.1) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | FAIR 71 – 60 MAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FAIR 98 – 62 MAN |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MAN 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MAN 80 – 67 FAIR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | FAIR 87 – 84 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 5-9 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#267) | -2.5 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#316) | -0.65 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.65 (#327) | -1.08 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.306 (#356) | 0.454 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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