Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | SPU -150 MSM +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +15 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -0.3 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -0.2 (-14.8) | 135.7 (-4.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -1.0 (-16.0) | 134.0 (-3.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -0.2 (-15.2) | 138.2 (-7.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -0.2 (-14.8) | 138.8 (-7.8) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | SPU 66 – 58 MSM |
| Jan 10, 2026 | MSM 70 – 65 SPU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSM 69 – 58 SPU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MSM 79 – 64 SPU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SPU 70 – 65 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.9 | 63.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#259) | 1.9 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#242) | 0.37 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#251) | 0.53 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#255) | 0.514 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.7% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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