Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | TEX -300 CREI +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -10.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -7.6 (-2.6) | 141.0 (-2.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -8.4 (-3.4) | 139.7 (-0.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -7.5 (-2.5) | 140.0 (-1.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -7.4 (-2.4) | 141.1 (-2.1) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 17-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#5) | 13.6 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#17) | 3.08 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.53 (#15) | 4.76 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#28) | 0.680 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 51.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 58.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.1% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 80.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 8.9% |
Game Analysis
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