Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | BEL -500 VAL +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +12 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -12.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -7.6 (+4.4) | 147.1 (-7.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -9.4 (+2.6) | 144.2 (-4.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -7.4 (+4.6) | 144.3 (-4.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -7.2 (+4.8) | 144.4 (-4.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | BEL 78 – 77 VAL |
| Jan 14, 2026 | BEL 78 – 74 VAL |
| Feb 13, 2025 | VAL 101 – 86 BEL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BEL 71 – 64 VAL |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BEL 86 – 61 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 5-15 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#160) | -4.7 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#112) | -0.10 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#134) | -1.02 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#114) | 0.440 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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