Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -700 ILST +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +3 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -17.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -10.6 (-7.6) | 137.5 (-0.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -12.8 (-9.8) | 138.9 (-1.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -10.3 (-7.3) | 140.7 (-3.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -10.7 (-7.7) | 140.5 (-3.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | ILST 78 – 61 MUR |
| Jan 29, 2026 | ILST 70 – 65 MUR |
| Jan 3, 2025 | ILST 74 – 68 MUR |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ILST 61 – 59 MUR |
| Dec 3, 2023 | ILST 76 – 72 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#106) | -7.5 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#125) | -1.47 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#104) | -2.64 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#117) | 0.424 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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