Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -167 OU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | OU -1.1 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -1.5 (+5.5) | 132.1 (+3.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -0.7 (+4.7) | 129.1 (+6.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -2.0 (+6.0) | 135.3 (+0.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OU -2.3 (+6.3) | 134.6 (+1.4) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#169) | 8.3 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#294) | 2.63 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#271) | 4.37 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#295) | 0.644 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 5.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 19.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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