Some is rich and some is poor and that's the way the world is / And I don't believe in lying back and saying how bad your life is. "Bankrobber" - The Clash
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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68–28 on winners spread MAE 10.2 96 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Southern @ Louisiana Tech +8.4 149.0 77% 59–74 ✓
Boston University @ Merrimack -3.7 132.6 30% 68–54 ✓
Campbell @ East Carolina +1.0 140.5 59% 69–79 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Mercer +4.1 145.2 69% 66–63 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ James Madison +21.3 148.4 90% 80–97 ✓
South Dakota State @ Kent State +15.7 138.3 87% 68–83 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Florida +4.8 140.2 73% 59–79 ✓
Wake Forest @ Clemson +2.1 154.0 60% 57–77 ✓
Pittsburgh @ NC State +9.7 146.0 83% 68–60 ✗
Towson @ Long Island University -12.0 137.1 15% 74–64 ✓
Massachusetts @ Harvard +3.9 134.6 64% 71–68 ✗
Canisius @ Siena +6.0 147.2 76% 70–74 ✓
Niagara @ Iona +9.8 133.9 79% 56–78 ✓
App State @ Charlotte +12.3 127.5 85% 62–71 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Liberty +12.6 135.7 86% 59–79 ✓
Florida A&M @ Georgia +20.7 129.9 91% 46–68 ✓
Northeastern @ Georgia Tech +13.0 133.8 85% 63–81 ✓
Baylor @ Gonzaga -0.4 164.4 47% 64–63 ✓
Colgate @ Auburn +10.1 142.8 80% 66–93 ✓
UT Arlington @ LSU +16.7 132.4 88% 59–63 ✓
Illinois @ Maryland +3.5 144.7 62% 66–71 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Idaho +2.6 145.2 61% 47–84 ✓
Fordham @ Tulane +5.1 143.7 65% 95–90 ✗
Saint Francis @ Ohio State +25.5 150.0 91% 59–96 ✓
Chattanooga @ Gardner-Webb +8.7 131.7 75% 82–71 ✗
Syracuse @ Notre Dame +5.9 137.1 70% 62–61 ✗
South Carolina State @ Furman +17.4 155.5 90% 76–88 ✓
South Carolina @ Georgetown +9.2 138.5 82% 74–71 ✗
Oklahoma @ Villanova -2.3 134.6 44% 66–70 ✗
Indiana State @ Miami (OH) -4.2 156.6 33% 88–61 ✓
Charleston @ The Citadel -3.0 149.7 34% 79–57 ✓
Wagner @ Army +2.3 148.1 57% 64–75 ✓
VCU @ Temple +2.5 132.1 63% 73–83 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Joseph's +8.8 157.4 79% 97–80 ✗
Navy @ VMI -10.9 149.4 24% 72–80 ✗
Florida State @ Virginia +22.9 138.8 90% 57–62 ✓
Morgan State @ Bowling Green +2.1 140.9 58% 76–86 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Mississippi State +33.3 128.3 90% 52–82 ✓
North Alabama @ Morehead State +4.8 141.8 59% 81–75 ✗
Princeton @ Drexel +0.6 132.8 52% 83–63 ✗
Davidson @ Delaware +2.5 149.5 65% 67–69 ✓
North Florida @ High Point +12.1 151.8 87% 88–93 ✓
Bucknell @ NJIT -0.3 135.4 44% 79–63 ✓
Evansville @ Northern Iowa +5.2 134.3 71% 55–72 ✓
UMBC @ Lehigh +4.1 151.1 65% 88–62 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Sacred Heart -4.8 150.8 28% 70–59 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Winthrop +7.3 146.0 75% 86–81 ✗
UT Martin @ UNC Asheville +10.5 153.7 81% 83–90 ✓
Toledo @ George Mason +2.3 153.9 60% 73–80 ✓
Ball State @ Duquesne +8.0 147.0 79% 77–78 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Dayton +7.8 136.3 79% 74–80 ✓
La Salle @ Pennsylvania +8.2 139.8 80% 84–81 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Dartmouth -3.2 134.8 42% 54–79 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Butler +20.6 144.9 89% 66–80 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Buffalo +0.1 144.0 49% 66–83 ✓
Troy @ SIU Edwardsville +4.1 145.7 68% 72–78 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Tulsa +0.5 152.8 55% 77–66 ✗
Longwood @ Delaware State -5.1 140.5 29% 75–49 ✓
Jackson State @ SMU +8.3 142.0 65% 69–68 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State +3.9 136.7 72% 77–92 ✓
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne +9.8 146.6 80% 73–79 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Western Illinois +3.6 152.3 65% 72–90 ✓
South Dakota @ BYU +5.8 143.9 73% 69–68 ✗
Indiana @ Rutgers +0.2 134.5 57% 48–63 ✓
San José State @ Arkansas +15.2 142.3 86% 58–99 ✓
Boston College @ Duke +14.4 132.6 87% 59–75 ✓
Tennessee State @ Austin Peay +2.8 133.6 60% 61–77 ✓
New Hampshire @ Columbia +3.2 136.2 57% 52–56 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Elon -0.9 133.4 44% 65–61 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Wyoming -2.5 131.4 46% 66–58 ✓
Long Beach State @ Utah Valley +4.0 139.6 71% 78–88 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Saint Louis +3.8 139.1 60% 72–85 ✓
Air Force @ Portland State +7.5 145.8 72% 64–68 ✓
Rider @ Mount St. Mary's +8.4 143.1 72% 68–65 ✗
Jacksonville State @ East Tennessee State +3.7 142.4 58% 63–61 ✗
DePaul @ Loyola Chicago +1.7 143.5 55% 78–72 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Colorado State +19.9 150.0 89% 88–83 ✗
Wisconsin @ Marquette +13.1 138.7 84% 80–77 ✗
Stonehill @ Binghamton +2.4 150.1 56% 69–66 ✗
Sacramento State @ Santa Clara +7.2 147.5 76% 65–72 ✓
Ohio @ Marshall +12.5 149.2 86% 69–83 ✓
Howard @ Hampton +2.6 144.9 61% 65–74 ✓
Coppin State @ Loyola Maryland +3.5 151.9 61% 74–71 ✗
Louisiana @ LSU New Orleans -10.0 157.2 18% 78–77 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Grambling +8.9 135.3 77% 39–72 ✓
North Dakota State @ Eastern Washington +7.5 143.1 71% 70–78 ✓
Pacific @ UC Santa Barbara +4.0 143.8 71% 71–82 ✓
Providence @ Rhode Island +2.1 136.8 58% 88–74 ✗
Wofford @ Vanderbilt +6.3 147.6 75% 62–65 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Western Carolina +12.2 149.2 85% 79–64 ✗
UIC @ Drake +10.9 139.4 82% 64–77 ✓
Omaha @ North Texas +11.4 132.5 85% 45–75 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Holy Cross +1.2 135.2 40% 57–63 ✓
Robert Morris @ Northern Kentucky +1.8 134.3 56% 56–60 ✓
Yale @ Stony Brook -15.1 129.7 14% 77–72 ✓
West Virginia @ Xavier +0.8 151.2 52% 74–84 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.