Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
← All models

Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
40–13 on winners spread MAE 10.7 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Richmond @ William & Mary +2.0 137.0 58% 57–58 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Fairfield +3.7 130.7 63% 55–67 ✓
Norfolk State @ Old Dominion +10.9 144.2 84% 62–68 ✓
Boise State @ Texas A&M -2.5 137.8 40% 86–71 ✓
Ole Miss @ Memphis +7.2 133.4 74% 57–68 ✓
Bradley @ Missouri State +3.3 129.4 59% 58–40 ✗
Lindenwood @ Kansas City +7.4 137.7 68% 47–61 ✓
Southern Utah @ Idaho State +4.5 150.1 69% 69–59 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Pepperdine +14.2 150.1 87% 69–88 ✓
North Dakota @ Portland +12.0 143.4 84% 69–90 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +19.8 144.3 91% 61–74 ✓
South Dakota State @ Alabama +19.4 152.8 89% 65–78 ✓
California Baptist @ Cal Poly +1.6 129.7 57% 53–64 ✓
Utah Tech @ Weber State -1.2 143.6 49% 77–65 ✓
Fresno State @ UC Irvine +17.6 132.6 74% 80–66 ✗
Wichita State @ Kansas State +8.8 135.8 80% 50–55 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Houston +7.3 123.7 77% 48–53 ✓
UNLV @ San Diego -1.6 143.1 41% 95–78 ✓
Nevada @ Loyola Marymount +0.5 145.5 55% 52–64 ✓
Maine @ Marist -5.4 130.6 28% 61–62 ✗
Bryant @ Cincinnati +2.9 153.8 62% 71–97 ✓
Michigan @ Kentucky +5.5 147.3 71% 69–73 ✓
Lafayette @ Cornell +10.3 136.3 78% 68–73 ✓
Miami @ Louisville -14.7 135.8 16% 80–53 ✓
Canisius @ Iona +15.1 145.7 86% 60–90 ✓
Youngstown State @ Wright State -4.2 153.9 30% 88–77 ✓
Murray State @ Valparaiso -2.1 140.0 48% 77–70 ✓
Belmont @ Illinois State -2.1 140.6 43% 77–87 ✗
Vermont @ Merrimack -3.5 132.9 32% 66–43 ✓
Georgia State @ Northeastern +2.3 133.6 65% 46–66 ✓
Samford @ UCF +6.4 139.6 73% 77–80 ✓
George Washington @ Radford +8.1 144.3 77% 76–86 ✓
South Alabama @ UAB +12.1 153.7 85% 68–76 ✓
Monmouth @ Manhattan +11.4 137.0 85% 76–69 ✗
Stetson @ Florida +6.4 154.2 69% 51–89 ✓
Brown @ Hartford -8.2 128.3 17% 65–51 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Eastern Michigan -9.4 149.8 17% 101–73 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech +2.8 149.2 63% 72–80 ✓
St. John's @ Iowa State +9.2 141.5 74% 60–71 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Chicago State -3.6 149.3 36% 61–78 ✗
Rice @ Texas State +10.2 144.1 82% 83–71 ✗
Niagara @ Quinnipiac +8.1 131.4 76% 64–60 ✗
Colorado @ Washington -0.5 140.5 55% 63–73 ✗
East Texas A&M @ Denver +3.7 142.1 66% 75–84 ✓
Utah @ Washington State +1.4 136.6 54% 67–65 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Missouri +14.5 152.0 86% 89–96 ✓
Nebraska @ Creighton +13.5 143.9 84% 63–53 ✗
Southern Miss @ Northwestern State -1.5 135.0 54% 82–84 ✗
California @ Arizona +21.2 147.4 89% 68–81 ✓
Minnesota @ Purdue +22.1 138.9 90% 70–89 ✓
Oregon @ UCLA +11.7 143.7 85% 56–65 ✓
Alcorn State @ Tennessee +20.9 132.2 90% 40–94 ✓
Florida International @ Florida Gulf Coast +17.9 147.0 85% 65–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.