I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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65–31 on winners spread MAE 11.2 96 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Southern @ Louisiana Tech +10.3 149.3 83% 59–74 ✓
Boston University @ Merrimack -3.5 130.3 37% 68–54 ✓
Campbell @ East Carolina +1.1 137.8 54% 69–79 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Mercer +5.4 147.3 69% 66–63 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ James Madison +26.8 147.1 99% 80–97 ✓
South Dakota State @ Kent State +19.0 135.2 96% 68–83 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Florida +6.2 137.7 71% 59–79 ✓
Wake Forest @ Clemson +3.9 156.1 64% 57–77 ✓
Pittsburgh @ NC State +15.4 150.5 92% 68–60 ✗
Towson @ Long Island University -13.1 131.9 12% 74–64 ✓
Massachusetts @ Harvard +3.4 131.6 62% 71–68 ✗
Canisius @ Siena +10.3 147.3 83% 70–74 ✓
Niagara @ Iona +13.3 123.4 89% 56–78 ✓
App State @ Charlotte +14.5 119.1 91% 62–71 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Liberty +15.5 133.0 92% 59–79 ✓
Florida A&M @ Georgia +24.4 121.7 99% 46–68 ✓
Northeastern @ Georgia Tech +16.3 128.0 93% 63–81 ✓
Baylor @ Gonzaga +0.5 171.9 52% 64–63 ✗
Colgate @ Auburn +9.8 140.2 81% 66–93 ✓
UT Arlington @ LSU +20.5 124.9 97% 59–63 ✓
Illinois @ Maryland +5.9 142.8 70% 66–71 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Idaho +2.2 146.9 58% 47–84 ✓
Fordham @ Tulane +8.3 141.3 77% 95–90 ✗
Saint Francis @ Ohio State +29.2 148.8 100% 59–96 ✓
Chattanooga @ Gardner-Webb +11.1 124.4 84% 82–71 ✗
Syracuse @ Notre Dame +9.7 134.4 81% 62–61 ✗
South Carolina State @ Furman +21.3 158.4 97% 76–88 ✓
South Carolina @ Georgetown +14.2 138.0 90% 74–71 ✗
Oklahoma @ Villanova -1.7 131.3 44% 66–70 ✗
Indiana State @ Miami (OH) -2.1 165.6 42% 88–61 ✓
Charleston @ The Citadel -3.3 151.8 38% 79–57 ✓
Wagner @ Army +3.6 152.3 63% 64–75 ✓
VCU @ Temple +3.8 129.2 64% 73–83 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Joseph's +12.8 166.9 88% 97–80 ✗
Navy @ VMI -12.4 144.7 13% 72–80 ✗
Florida State @ Virginia +26.9 134.8 99% 57–62 ✓
Morgan State @ Bowling Green +1.6 140.4 56% 76–86 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Mississippi State +34.0 110.9 100% 52–82 ✓
North Alabama @ Morehead State +6.8 143.5 73% 81–75 ✗
Princeton @ Drexel +0.9 127.2 53% 83–63 ✗
Davidson @ Delaware +5.2 152.6 68% 67–69 ✓
North Florida @ High Point +14.9 153.1 91% 88–93 ✓
Bucknell @ NJIT -1.5 133.3 44% 79–63 ✓
Evansville @ Northern Iowa +10.2 133.3 82% 55–72 ✓
UMBC @ Lehigh +6.6 158.3 73% 88–62 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Sacred Heart -7.3 154.2 25% 70–59 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Winthrop +10.3 146.5 83% 86–81 ✗
UT Martin @ UNC Asheville +13.3 162.8 89% 83–90 ✓
Toledo @ George Mason +3.5 159.3 63% 73–80 ✓
Ball State @ Duquesne +8.8 146.4 79% 77–78 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Dayton +11.2 130.1 85% 74–80 ✓
La Salle @ Pennsylvania +11.3 138.7 85% 84–81 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Dartmouth -4.8 128.6 33% 54–79 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Butler +23.9 143.5 99% 66–80 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Buffalo +0.8 145.1 53% 66–83 ✓
Troy @ SIU Edwardsville +3.4 145.4 62% 72–78 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Tulsa -1.7 158.3 44% 77–66 ✓
Longwood @ Delaware State -5.4 138.1 31% 75–49 ✓
Jackson State @ SMU +11.3 143.4 85% 69–68 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State +6.8 134.3 73% 77–92 ✓
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne +16.3 154.6 93% 73–79 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Western Illinois +6.2 158.5 71% 72–90 ✓
South Dakota @ BYU +11.4 150.3 85% 69–68 ✗
Indiana @ Rutgers -0.4 128.5 48% 48–63 ✗
San José State @ Arkansas +17.8 135.6 95% 58–99 ✓
Boston College @ Duke +20.3 123.3 97% 59–75 ✓
Tennessee State @ Austin Peay +1.7 128.2 56% 61–77 ✓
New Hampshire @ Columbia +4.9 136.2 67% 52–56 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Elon +1.3 131.5 55% 65–61 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Wyoming -1.3 125.2 45% 66–58 ✓
Long Beach State @ Utah Valley +7.2 137.3 74% 78–88 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Saint Louis +3.7 138.0 63% 72–85 ✓
Air Force @ Portland State +10.6 149.8 83% 64–68 ✓
Rider @ Mount St. Mary's +13.6 140.1 89% 68–65 ✗
Jacksonville State @ East Tennessee State +5.0 138.9 68% 63–61 ✗
DePaul @ Loyola Chicago +0.6 143.0 52% 78–72 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Colorado State +21.9 149.4 98% 88–83 ✗
Wisconsin @ Marquette +15.9 132.5 93% 80–77 ✗
Stonehill @ Binghamton +1.7 156.4 56% 69–66 ✗
Sacramento State @ Santa Clara +8.8 145.9 79% 65–72 ✓
Ohio @ Marshall +13.7 149.5 89% 69–83 ✓
Howard @ Hampton +6.0 150.8 71% 65–74 ✓
Coppin State @ Loyola Maryland +2.9 158.6 60% 74–71 ✗
Louisiana @ LSU New Orleans -12.6 164.5 13% 78–77 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Grambling +12.2 130.5 87% 39–72 ✓
North Dakota State @ Eastern Washington +11.0 144.1 84% 70–78 ✓
Pacific @ UC Santa Barbara +5.8 146.2 70% 71–82 ✓
Providence @ Rhode Island +2.3 134.8 58% 88–74 ✗
Wofford @ Vanderbilt +7.7 151.1 76% 62–65 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Western Carolina +18.7 152.4 96% 79–64 ✗
UIC @ Drake +17.2 133.9 94% 64–77 ✓
Omaha @ North Texas +11.8 125.6 86% 45–75 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Holy Cross +0.9 136.5 53% 57–63 ✓
Robert Morris @ Northern Kentucky +2.9 129.4 60% 56–60 ✓
Yale @ Stony Brook -25.6 120.1 1% 77–72 ✓
West Virginia @ Xavier -1.9 154.0 43% 74–84 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.