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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–10 on winners
spread MAE 10.9
27 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Creighton
@
Texas
|
+9.7 | 137.5 | 81% | 67–72 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Radford
|
+10.0 | 137.1 | 82% | 78–80 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Delaware
|
+4.0 | 154.9 | 64% | 74–67 | ✗ |
Presbyterian
@
Wofford
|
+17.2 | 138.2 | 94% | 63–76 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Saint Peter's
|
-0.3 | 133.7 | 49% | 73–58 | ✓ |
Fairfield
@
Manhattan
|
+4.3 | 130.3 | 65% | 53–56 | ✓ |
Youngstown State
@
Northern Kentucky
|
-9.7 | 145.5 | 19% | 73–77 | ✗ |
Robert Morris
@
Wright State
|
+15.8 | 146.5 | 92% | 80–59 | ✗ |
Oakland
@
Cleveland State
|
+20.2 | 144.4 | 97% | 64–80 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
+6.0 | 144.9 | 71% | 75–66 | ✗ |
Chicago State
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
+2.9 | 146.6 | 60% | 73–86 | ✓ |
Illinois State
@
Murray State
|
+17.4 | 134.8 | 94% | 67–70 | ✓ |
Valparaiso
@
Belmont
|
+13.6 | 142.9 | 89% | 64–76 | ✓ |
Denver
@
Houston Christian
|
-8.2 | 147.7 | 23% | 93–83 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Arkansas State
|
+14.5 | 120.1 | 91% | 38–58 | ✓ |
Milwaukee
@
Green Bay
|
-12.4 | 134.2 | 13% | 81–67 | ✓ |
Arizona
@
Utah
|
+5.4 | 162.2 | 69% | 66–81 | ✓ |
Texas State
@
Lamar
|
-2.8 | 138.5 | 40% | 65–55 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
Colorado
|
+6.2 | 144.2 | 71% | 60–59 | ✗ |
Seton Hall
@
Kansas
|
+9.2 | 135.2 | 80% | 65–91 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+10.5 | 140.4 | 83% | 102–96 | ✗ |
Pacific
@
UC Davis
|
+16.0 | 170.3 | 93% | 74–72 | ✗ |
Utah Tech
@
Utah State
|
+17.8 | 156.7 | 95% | 81–86 | ✓ |
Washington
@
Oregon State
|
-1.0 | 126.1 | 46% | 65–66 | ✗ |
UCLA
@
Stanford
|
-6.1 | 135.3 | 29% | 80–66 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
Oregon
|
-0.8 | 138.6 | 47% | 60–74 | ✗ |
Brown
@
Bryant
|
+21.7 | 151.9 | 98% | 72–60 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.