And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–14 on winners spread MAE 11.8 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Richmond @ William & Mary +0.1 131.4 50% 57–58 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Fairfield +8.6 125.9 78% 55–67 ✓
Norfolk State @ Old Dominion +13.7 141.4 89% 62–68 ✓
Boise State @ Texas A&M -2.8 133.0 40% 86–71 ✓
Ole Miss @ Memphis +8.0 131.3 77% 57–68 ✓
Bradley @ Missouri State +6.5 120.8 72% 58–40 ✗
Lindenwood @ Kansas City +9.3 133.1 80% 47–61 ✓
Southern Utah @ Idaho State +5.4 157.3 69% 69–59 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Pepperdine +15.3 149.6 92% 69–88 ✓
North Dakota @ Portland +16.3 144.4 93% 69–90 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +26.7 140.8 99% 61–74 ✓
South Dakota State @ Alabama +23.4 152.1 98% 65–78 ✓
California Baptist @ Cal Poly +0.4 122.6 52% 53–64 ✓
Utah Tech @ Weber State -2.2 139.0 42% 77–65 ✓
Fresno State @ UC Irvine +22.2 119.8 98% 80–66 ✗
Wichita State @ Kansas State +10.2 130.2 82% 50–55 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Houston +11.4 114.5 85% 48–53 ✓
UNLV @ San Diego -1.3 141.8 45% 95–78 ✓
Nevada @ Loyola Marymount -1.9 149.5 43% 52–64 ✗
Maine @ Marist -7.8 129.6 24% 61–62 ✗
Bryant @ Cincinnati +3.2 159.9 62% 71–97 ✓
Michigan @ Kentucky +9.4 148.0 80% 69–73 ✓
Lafayette @ Cornell +12.7 132.4 88% 68–73 ✓
Miami @ Louisville -12.4 137.6 13% 80–53 ✓
Canisius @ Iona +17.9 145.1 95% 60–90 ✓
Youngstown State @ Wright State -5.3 163.6 32% 88–77 ✓
Murray State @ Valparaiso -2.2 137.5 42% 77–70 ✓
Belmont @ Illinois State -1.5 138.1 44% 77–87 ✗
Vermont @ Merrimack -2.7 130.6 40% 66–43 ✓
Georgia State @ Northeastern +3.0 130.3 61% 46–66 ✓
Samford @ UCF +5.8 135.9 70% 77–80 ✓
George Washington @ Radford +10.3 146.1 83% 76–86 ✓
South Alabama @ UAB +13.4 162.5 89% 68–76 ✓
Monmouth @ Manhattan +17.2 133.6 94% 76–69 ✗
Stetson @ Florida +7.1 162.9 74% 51–89 ✓
Brown @ Hartford -12.6 126.9 13% 65–51 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Eastern Michigan -12.1 149.3 13% 101–73 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech +1.9 153.8 57% 72–80 ✓
St. John's @ Iowa State +13.8 142.0 89% 60–71 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Chicago State -4.9 155.3 33% 61–78 ✗
Rice @ Texas State +16.8 143.3 94% 83–71 ✗
Niagara @ Quinnipiac +12.8 125.0 88% 64–60 ✗
Colorado @ Washington -1.0 144.1 47% 63–73 ✗
East Texas A&M @ Denver +3.5 139.4 63% 75–84 ✓
Utah @ Washington State +3.3 134.7 62% 67–65 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Missouri +16.3 159.4 93% 89–96 ✓
Nebraska @ Creighton +15.8 144.8 92% 63–53 ✗
Southern Miss @ Northwestern State -4.9 131.8 33% 82–84 ✗
California @ Arizona +27.6 148.3 99% 68–81 ✓
Minnesota @ Purdue +26.4 124.2 99% 70–89 ✓
Oregon @ UCLA +14.3 142.2 90% 56–65 ✓
Alcorn State @ Tennessee +23.7 126.1 98% 40–94 ✓
Florida International @ Florida Gulf Coast +21.3 149.9 97% 65–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.